2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 3-3. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-ELC. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1588 and 1562 — 26 points — for a 50.5% / 24.8% / 24.7% split.
5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Someone wins 75.2% of the time by this model. A 25.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +88 and +62. Expected shares 62.8% against 37.2% on Elo. In absolute terms: Millwall 1.01/0.69, Norwich 1.11/0.82 on attack and defence. Higher rating: the home side. Outcomes span 25.8 points. The underlying goal expectation is 1.22 for Millwall, 1.02 for Norwich. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 48 and 46 matches. Top of the distribution: Millwall, 50.5%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 13.2% — not a strong call. Final score: 3-0. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 26 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Each side owns one half of the argument — Norwich the scoring rate at 1.11, Millwall the conceding rate at 0.69.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Millwall comfortably beat Norwich 3-0 on 22 August 2026. Taïryk Arconte opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Millwall to make it 1-0. Taïryk Arconte added to the tally 58 minutes into the game for Millwall, set up by Jake Cooper, to make it 2-0. Luke Cundle added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Millwall, set up by Camiel Neghli, to make it 3-0. José Cordoba (64') was sent off. José Cordoba (25'), Harry Darling (37') and Jenson Metcalfe (40') were booked. Luke Cundle scored after coming off the bench.