Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-ELC. History aside, the live ratings of 1660 and 1397 drive a 78.6% / 16.5% / 4.9% distribution.
The higher rating expects 86.9% of the points, the lower 13.1%. Southampton leads the distribution by 62.1 points over the draw. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Raw profiles are 1.43 and 0.77 against 0.75 and 1.16. The underlying goal expectation is 2.47 for Southampton, 0.78 for Stoke. Rounded, that is 2-0. Neither figure is thin: 48 and 46 matches respectively sit behind them. A 263-point difference on the rating scale. There is no trade-off to weigh: Southampton scores at the higher rate (1.43 to 0.75) and concedes at the lower (0.77 to 1.16). Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +160 and -103. The tie closed out 3-1. A decisive result carries 83.5% against 16.5% for the draw. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Between best and worst outcome there is 73.7 points of daylight. The scoreline spread is even — 2-0 on 11.8% leads, but only just. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Southampton beat Stoke 3-1 on 22 August 2026. Cyle Larin opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Southampton, set up by Flynn Downes, to make it 1-0. Ethan Galbraith levelled it in the 26th minute for Stoke, set up by Sam Gallagher, to make it 1-1. Southampton regained the lead through Divin Mubama late on, in the 89th minute, set up by Finn Azaz, to make it 2-1. Ryan Manning added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 94th minute for Southampton to make it 3-1. Svante Ingelsson (90') was sent off. 7 players were booked, among them James Bree (19'), Sam Gallagher (38'), Flynn Downes (50'), Ryan Manning (53'), Ethan Galbraith (62') and Maksym Taloverov (82'). Divin Mubama scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Southampton 263 points stronger than Stoke. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Southampton at 78.6% in this pairing, and Southampton won this one. Stoke are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.