Rated 1445 and 1342, these two produce a 61.3% / 22.1% / 16.5% split. Both components point the same way, toward Preston NE: 0.88 to 0.60 going forward, 1.21 to 1.22 going back.
Raw profiles are 0.88 and 1.21 against 0.60 and 1.22. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. 61.3% goes to Preston NE, the model's lean. Versus the 1500 seed: -55 and -158. Preston NE's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 72.5%. A 103-point spread sits between the two figures. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Most and least likely outcomes are 44.8 points apart. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 12.2%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 46 and 38 rated matches respectively. First to second is a 39.2-point step, Preston NE over the draw. Final score: 1-3. Someone wins 77.8% of the time by this model. xG: 1.60 to 0.97. The home side is rated higher.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Wolverhampton beat Preston NE 3-1 on 22 August 2026. Fer López opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Wolverhampton, set up by André, to make it 1-0. Adam Armstrong added to the tally 71 minutes into the game for Wolverhampton, set up by Raúl Jiménez, to make it 2-0. Fer López added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Wolverhampton, set up by Tommy Doyle, to make it 3-0. Jordan Thompson got one back in the 91st minute for Preston NE, set up by Delano Burgzorg, to make it 1-3. Andrew Hughes (14'), Marshall Munetsi (43'), Alistair McCann (50'), Léo Leroy (55') and Harry Clarke (90') were booked. Adam Armstrong and Jordan Thompson scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Preston NE clearly the stronger side, by 103 rating points over Wolverhampton, even though it was Wolverhampton who won this one. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Wolverhampton only a 16.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Wolverhampton at around 0.97 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here.