West Brom rates 1475 to Burnley's 1306 — 169 points. Split: 69.4% / 19.8% / 10.8%.
Rounded, that is 1-0. Distance between the ratings: 169 points, wide on this scale. A 58.6-point range top to bottom. Versus the 1500 seed: -25 and -194. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 38 matches. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.66 and 0.76. Someone wins 80.2% of the time by this model. Most likely single result is West Brom on 69.4%. The home side is rated higher. There is no trade-off to weigh: West Brom scores at the higher rate (0.80 to 0.72) and concedes at the lower (0.79 to 1.41). No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 14.7%. Expected shares 79.4% against 20.6% on Elo. It ended 3-1. The leading outcome clears the second by 49.6 points. In absolute terms: West Brom 0.80/0.79, Burnley 0.72/1.41 on attack and defence. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
West Brom beat Burnley 3-1 on 23 August 2026. Callum Styles (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Burnley to make it 1-0. Harry Whitwell levelled it in the 18th minute for West Brom, set up by Jimmy Morgan, to make it 1-1. Isaac Price put West Brom in front 46 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Isaac Price added to the tally from the penalty spot 65 minutes into the game for West Brom to make it 3-1. Oliver Sonne (26'), George Campbell (33') and Marcus Edwards (70') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have West Brom 169 points stronger than Burnley. On current ratings the model favours West Brom at 69.4% in this pairing, and West Brom won this one.