One half each — West Ham in front on 0.94, Charlton behind on 1.00. On rating it is 1474 against 1429, which the model resolves to 53.3% / 24.1% / 22.5%.
53.3% goes to West Ham, the model's lean. The distribution runs from 53.3% down to 22.5%. 75.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Expected goals come out at 1.39 to 1.09. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The two ratings differ by 45 points. Raw profiles are 0.94 and 1.10 against 0.73 and 1.00. Played and finished 1-2. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Both figures rest on decent samples, 38 and 46 matches. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.7%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 65.3% to 34.7%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -26 and -71. West Ham leads the distribution by 29.2 points over the draw.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Charlton edged past West Ham 2-1 on 22 August 2026. Lloyd Jones opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Charlton, set up by Sonny Carey, to make it 1-0. Tyreece Campbell added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Charlton to make it 2-0. Joël Piroe pulled one back 74 minutes into the game for West Ham to make it 1-2. Max Kilman (47'), Dan McNamara (50'), Karlan Grant (72'), Valentín Castellanos (81') and Lloyd Jones (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make West Ham slightly the stronger side, by 45 rating points over Charlton, even though it was Charlton who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Charlton only a 22.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26 and Championship 2026/27.