Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-ELC. The live ratings are 1506 and 1470, giving 52.0% / 24.4% / 23.5%.
A decisive result carries 75.5% against 24.4% for the draw. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +6 and -30. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Played and finished 2-2. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.33 and 1.04. The two halves pull apart — Bristol City better going forward at 0.90, Birmingham tighter at the back on 0.86. The home side is rated higher. The distribution runs from 52.0% down to 23.5%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.9% — not a strong call. Most likely single result is Birmingham on 52.0%. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 0.86 against 0.90 and 1.02. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 64.1% to 35.9%. Neither figure is thin: 46 and 46 matches respectively sit behind them. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Birmingham sits 27.6 points above the next most likely result. 36 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Birmingham and Bristol City drew 2-2 on 22 August 2026. Scott Twine opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Bristol City to make it 1-0. Sam Tickle (an own goal) levelled it in the 42nd minute for Birmingham to make it 1-1. Bristol City regained the lead through Dominic Ballard late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Rio Cardines, to make it 2-1. Demarai Gray levelled it from the penalty spot in the 95th minute for Birmingham to make it 2-2. Bright Osayi-Samuel (32'), Patrick Roberts (78') and Dominic Ballard (86') were booked. Dominic Ballard and Demarai Gray scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Birmingham are 36 points stronger than Bristol City. 2 goals came after the 80th minute.