Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-PL. Against that, current ratings read 1306 and 1474, a 168-point margin, and the model splits the tie 23.4% / 24.4% / 52.2%.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -194 and -26. With 38 and 38 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The higher-rated side expects 64.4% of the points; the other side 35.6%. Most likely single result is West Ham on 52.2%. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Neither component contradicts the other: West Ham leads 0.94-0.72 forward and 1.10-1.41 back. Expected goals 1.17-1.78. The match finished 2-2. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.9% leads, but only just. Someone wins 75.6% of the time by this model. Attack/defence pairs: 0.72/1.41 and 0.94/1.10. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 168 points. West Ham leads the distribution by 27.8 points over the draw. As a single number the model says 1-1.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Burnley and West Ham drew 2-2 on 16 August 2026. Max Kilman opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for West Ham, set up by Jarrod Bowen, to make it 1-0. Manor Solomon added to the tally 72 minutes into the game for West Ham, set up by Mohamadou Kante, to make it 2-0. Zian Flemming pulled one back from the penalty spot late on, in the 84th minute for Burnley to make it 1-2. Zian Flemming levelled it in the 92nd minute for Burnley to make it 2-2. Mohamadou Kante (33'), Valentín Castellanos (67'), Mads Hermansen (84') and El Hadji Diouf (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have West Ham 168 points stronger than Burnley. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. West Ham are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26 and Championship 2026/27.