On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 4-1 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-ELC. History aside, the live ratings of 1501 and 1506 drive a 45.6% / 25.9% / 28.5% distribution.
Distance between the ratings: 5 points, narrow on this scale. The leading outcome clears the second by 17.1 points. The away side is rated higher. Attack/defence pairs: 1.15/1.07 and 0.88/0.86. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 45.6% goes to Sheffield Utd, the model's lean. The tie closed out 0-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.7 points apart. The edge is split: Sheffield Utd scores at the higher rate (1.15 to 0.88), Birmingham concedes at the lower (0.86 to 1.07). Win-or-lose totals 74.1%; the draw takes the rest. Both figures rest on decent samples, 46 and 46 matches. Expected shares 58.5% against 41.5% on Elo. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 12.1%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.46 and 1.27. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +1 and +6. Scorelines above 8%: 4.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.