On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 2-3 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-ELC. History aside, the live ratings of 1397 and 1526 drive a 28.1% / 25.8% / 46.1% distribution.
A decisive result carries 74.2% against 25.8% for the draw. A 18.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The four component numbers read 0.75, 1.16, 1.04, 0.98. The distribution runs from 46.1% down to 25.8%. Expected goals 1.10-1.63. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.7% leads, but only just. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 46 and 46 rated matches respectively. Its rounded call is 1-1. Swansea's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 59.1%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -103 and +26. The rating gap itself is 129 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Final score: 1-2. The model's preferred outcome is Swansea at 46.1%. Both components point the same way, toward Swansea: 1.04 to 0.75 going forward, 0.98 to 1.16 going back.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Swansea edged past Stoke 2-1 on 15 August 2026. Eric Bocat opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Stoke, set up by Tomas Rigo, to make it 1-0. Joseph Opoku levelled it in the 22nd minute for Swansea to make it 1-1. Adam Idah put Swansea in front 66 minutes into the game, set up by Josh Tymon, to make it 2-1. Luke Graham (36'), Filip Lissah (53'), Melker Widell (86') and Josh Tymon (90') were booked. Adam Idah scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Swansea 129 points stronger than Stoke. Stoke are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.