The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Norwich, 1 to West Brom, 0 drawn, 5-1 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 5-0 in comp-fd-ELC. The live ratings are 1562 and 1475, giving 59.3% / 22.7% / 18.0%.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. A 36.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. It ended 1-2. A 87-point difference on the rating scale. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 14.7%. Versus the 1500 seed: +62 and -25. Norwich carries the largest share, 59.3%. The model gives 77.3% to someone winning. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Elo expected shares: 70.6% and 29.4%. Norwich has the better scoring rate (1.11) and West Brom the better defensive one (0.79). Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. Neither figure is thin: 46 and 46 matches respectively sit behind them. Most and least likely outcomes are 41.3 points apart. Raw profiles are 1.11 and 0.82 against 0.80 and 0.79. Goal expectation splits 1.30 to 0.88.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
West Brom edged past Norwich 2-1 on 15 August 2026. Aune Heggebø opened the scoring 75 minutes into the game for West Brom, set up by Jimmy Morgan, to make it 1-0. Jimmy Morgan added to the tally late on, in the 87th minute for West Brom, set up by Max O'Leary, to make it 2-0. Mathias Kvistgaarden pulled one back in the 91st minute for Norwich to make it 1-2. Nathaniel Phillips (31') and Ousmane Diakité (48') were booked. Mathias Kvistgaarden scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Norwich slightly the stronger side, by 87 rating points over West Brom, even though it was West Brom who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives West Brom only a 18% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.