The model declines to call this one. 1519 plays 1600, and the three-way split of 34.0% / 27.5% / 38.5% is about as close to undecided as its output gets.
Most likely single result is Coventry City on 38.5%. The match finished 0-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.5%. A 4.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Top to bottom the spread is only 11.0 points. Point estimate: 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 43 and 51 matches. A 81-point spread sits between the two figures. Logged in advance of kickoff — 32.5% / 27.0% / 40.5%. It landed. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Expected goals come out at 1.28 to 1.34. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +19 and +100. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Attack/defence pairs: 0.99/0.86 and 1.16/0.87. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Someone wins 72.5% of the time by this model. The higher-rated side expects 52.3% of the points; the other side 47.7%. Each side owns one half of the argument — Coventry City the scoring rate at 1.16, Nottingham the conceding rate at 0.86.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Coventry City edged past Nottingham 1-0 on 19 September 2026. Jay Dasilva opened the scoring 55 minutes into the game for Coventry City, set up by Carl Rushworth, to make it 1-0. Liam Delap (59') was booked.