Draw weight is the story: 26.7% of a 41.9% / 26.7% / 31.4% split.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +53 and +81. The tie closed out 2-1. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rounded, that is 1-1. 28 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. First to second is a 10.5-point step, Newcastle over Hull City. In absolute terms: Newcastle 1.22/1.25, Hull City 0.96/0.80 on attack and defence. Someone wins 73.3% of the time by this model. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.9%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 55.3% to 44.7%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The forecast we stored before the match was 40.5% / 27.0% / 32.5%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 55 and 54 matches. One half each — Newcastle in front on 1.22, Hull City behind on 0.80. Newcastle carries the largest share, 41.9%. A 15.2-point range top to bottom. The away side is rated higher. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.45 and 1.63.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Newcastle edged past Hull City 2-1 on 19 September 2026. Joe Willock opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Newcastle, set up by Harvey Barnes, to make it 1-0. Lewis Hall added to the tally inside the first 7 minutes for Newcastle, set up by Harvey Barnes, to make it 2-0. Mohamed Cho pulled one back 67 minutes into the game for Hull City, set up by Mohamed Belloumi, to make it 1-2. Matt Crooks (29'), Mohamed Belloumi (39'), Konstantinos Tzolakis (45'), Jacob Murphy (45') and Ryan John Giles (49') were booked. Mohamed Cho scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Hull City slightly the stronger side, by 28 rating points over Newcastle, even though it was Newcastle who won this one.