The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Tottenham, 1 to Aston Villa, 0 drawn, 3-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1423 against 1544 — a 29.0% / 26.0% / 45.0% split.
Elo expected shares: 42.0% and 58.0%. 121 points of rating separation. Aston Villa is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.80 in attack, 1.16 to 1.17 in defence. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.0 points apart. Raw profiles are 0.80 and 1.17 against 1.09 and 1.16. Top of the distribution: Aston Villa, 45.0%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Higher rating: the away side. Expected goals 1.37-1.73. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. It ended 2-3. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.7%. A decisive result carries 74.0% against 26.0% for the draw. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -77 and +44. The ratings draw on 53 and 44 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The forecast we stored before the match was 30.1% / 26.4% / 43.5%. It landed. Aston Villa holds a 16.0-point edge on the next outcome.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.