On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 1-3 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-PL. Today those sides rate 1621 and 1797, 176 apart, which resolves to 22.5% / 24.1% / 53.4%.
The leading outcome clears the second by 29.3 points. Logged in advance of kickoff — 11.6% / 20.2% / 68.2%. The match did not follow it. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The tie closed out 3-0. Expected goals sit at 1.03 against 1.29. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Top of the distribution: Arsenal, 53.4%. Win-or-lose totals 75.9%; the draw takes the rest. Neither side holds both halves — Brighton Hove scores at 1.35, Arsenal concedes at 0.51. Behind them are 43 and 59 rated matches. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +121 and +297. The higher rating expects 65.5% of the points, the lower 34.5%. In absolute terms: Brighton Hove 1.35/0.83, Arsenal 1.15/0.51 on attack and defence. Rating separation comes to 176 points. The distribution runs from 53.4% down to 22.5%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.1% leads, but only just.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Brighton Hove comfortably beat Arsenal 3-0 on 19 September 2026. Pascal Groß opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Brighton Hove, set up by Charalampos Kostoulas, to make it 1-0. Charalampos Kostoulas added to the tally in the 45th minute for Brighton Hove, set up by Diego Gómez, to make it 2-0. Chema Andrés added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Brighton Hove, set up by Pascal Groß, to make it 3-0. Charalampos Kostoulas (33'), Ferdi Kadıoğlu (45'), Pascal Struijk (71'), Maxim De Cuyper (90') and Declan Rice (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Arsenal clearly the stronger side, by 176 rating points over Brighton Hove, even though it was Brighton Hove who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Brighton Hove only a 22.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Brighton Hove won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.