Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1556 against 1437 — a 63.4% / 21.6% / 15.0% split.
The xG line reads 1.86 to 0.92. Before kickoff our model had this at 60.8% / 22.3% / 16.9%. That one did not come off. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Leeds United is ahead on each half — 0.98 to 0.82 in attack, 0.82 to 1.27 in defence. Final score: 0-0. Expected shares 74.3% against 25.7% on Elo. 63.4% goes to Leeds United, the model's lean. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Its point estimate is 1-0. 78.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 119-point difference on the rating scale. The three results cover 48.4 points. Higher rating: the home side. The four component numbers read 0.98, 0.82, 0.82, 1.27. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +56 and -63. The gap between first and second outcome is 41.8 points, Leeds United ahead of the draw. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 11.6% — not a strong call. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 43 matches respectively sit behind them.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Leeds United and Crystal Palace could not be separated in a goalless draw on 20 September 2026. Jayden Bogle (38'), Ao Tanaka (62'), Adam Wharton (64'), Yeremi Pino (81') and Jefferson Lerma (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Leeds United 119 points stronger than Crystal Palace. Leeds United are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.