No separation at all — 36.4% / 27.9% / 35.7% across the three results.
Its point estimate is 1-1. The higher rating belongs to the away side. The higher-rated side expects 49.7% of the points; the other side 50.3%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 33.4% / 27.3% / 39.3%. That one did not come off. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The four component numbers read 0.95, 0.93, 1.20, 0.99. A 0.7-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.5% leads, but only just. Distance between the ratings: 63 points, moderate on this scale. The model's preferred outcome is Everton at 36.4%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.40 and 1.50. The two halves pull apart — Ipswich Town better going forward at 1.20, Everton tighter at the back on 0.93. The model gives 72.1% to someone winning. The match finished 1-0. A 8.5-point range covers every outcome here. With 43 and 51 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +20 and +83.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Everton edged past Ipswich Town 1-0 on 19 September 2026. Abdul Issahaku (35') and Vitalii Mykolenko (42') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Ipswich Town slightly the stronger side, by 63 rating points over Everton, even though it was Everton who won this one. Everton are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.