Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-PL. History aside, the live ratings of 1471 and 1638 drive a 23.5% / 24.4% / 52.1% distribution.
Man United holds both halves of the profile — 1.31 against 0.81 for scoring, 0.96 against 0.97 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The three results cover 28.6 points. Higher rating: the away side. Goal expectation splits 1.15 to 1.71. Behind them are 43 and 43 rated matches. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 167 points. A 27.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Win-or-lose totals 75.6%; the draw takes the rest. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 20.7% / 23.5% / 55.8%. The match did not follow it. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -29 and +138. Scorelines above 8%: 4. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 35.7% to 64.3%. Most likely single result is Man United on 52.1%. The tie closed out 1-1. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.3% leads, but only just.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.