The stalemate carries 26.7% in a 31.2% / 26.7% / 42.2% distribution.
Neither figure is thin: 53 and 54 matches respectively sit behind them. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 103 points. The four component numbers read 1.09, 1.43, 0.96, 0.80. Each side owns one half of the argument — Chelsea the scoring rate at 1.09, Hull City the conceding rate at 0.80. The gap between first and second outcome is 11.0 points, Hull City ahead of Chelsea. 73.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -22 and +81. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.3% leads, but only just. Expected goals sit at 1.29 against 1.86. Hull City's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 55.4%. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Top of the distribution: Hull City, 42.2%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 30.7% / 26.5% / 42.7%. The result went the other way. Final score: 2-2. A 15.5-point range top to bottom. Its rounded call is 1-1.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Chelsea and Hull City drew 2-2 on 12 September 2026. Morgan Rogers opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Chelsea, set up by João Pedro, to make it 1-0. Mohamed Belloumi levelled it in the 28th minute for Hull City, set up by Ryan John Giles, to make it 1-1. Mohamed Belloumi put Hull City in front in the 34th minute, set up by Oliver McBurnie, to make it 2-1. João Pedro levelled it 66 minutes into the game for Chelsea, set up by Cole Palmer, to make it 2-2. Oliver McBurnie (17'), John Egan (50'), Matt Crooks (52'), Valentin Barco (80'), Tim Iroegbunam (88') and Brooke Norton-Cuffy (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Hull City 103 points stronger than Chelsea.