Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-1-1 from Leeds United's side on wins, 3-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-4 in comp-fd-PL. The live ratings are 1556 and 1553, giving 46.8% / 25.6% / 27.5%.
Expected shares on the Elo curve: 59.7% and 40.3%. The home side is rated higher. The match finished 4-1. The model gives 74.3% to someone winning. The four component numbers read 0.98, 0.82, 1.22, 1.25. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.2%. Most and least likely outcomes are 21.2 points apart. Expected goals 1.83-1.36. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 43 and 55 rated matches respectively. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 42.9% / 26.5% / 30.6%. That call matched the result. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The two ratings differ by 3 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. As a single number the model says 1-1. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +56 and +53. Each side owns one half of the argument — Newcastle the scoring rate at 1.22, Leeds United the conceding rate at 0.82.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Leeds United comfortably beat Newcastle 4-1 on 14 September 2026. Lewis Miley (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Leeds United to make it 1-0. Jayden Bogle added to the tally in the 34th minute for Leeds United, set up by Dominic Calvert-Lewin, to make it 2-0. Dominic Calvert-Lewin added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Leeds United, set up by Tarik Muharemović, to make it 3-0. Noah Okafor added to the tally 59 minutes into the game for Leeds United to make it 4-0. Bazoumana Touré got one back late on, in the 90th minute for Newcastle, set up by Valentino Livramento, to make it 1-4. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (44'), Jacob Murphy (54') and Valentino Livramento (90') were booked. Bazoumana Touré scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings the model puts Leeds United at around 1.83 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Leeds United are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. Leeds United won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.