Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 26.5% against 43.1% and 30.5%.
The underlying goal expectation is 1.43 for Coventry City, 1.59 for Brighton Hove. The forecast we stored before the match was 60.5% / 22.4% / 17.1%. The match did not follow it. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Rating separation comes to 21 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.16/0.87 and 1.35/0.83. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +100 and +121. Coventry City carries the largest share, 43.1%. The away side is rated higher. With 51 and 43 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.1%. Result on the day: 0-5. Neither component contradicts the other: Brighton Hove leads 1.35-1.16 forward and 0.83-0.87 back. Between best and worst outcome there is 16.6 points of daylight. A 12.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Elo expected shares: 56.3% and 43.7%. Win-or-lose totals 73.6%; the draw takes the rest.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.