Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-PL. The present numbers are 1497 against 1797, and the model turns that into 10.6% / 19.8% / 69.6%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -3 and +297. A 300-point spread sits between the two figures. Expected goals sit at 0.67 against 1.82. The single-scoreline output is 0-1. Final score: 0-2. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The model gives 80.2% to someone winning. Arsenal's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 79.5%. Behind them are 43 and 59 rated matches. Most and least likely outcomes are 59.0 points apart. Of the individual scorelines, 0-1 carries the most weight at 15.0% — 0-2 is next at 13.7%. Arsenal is ahead on each half — 1.15 to 0.89 in attack, 0.51 to 1.17 in defence. First to second is a 49.8-point step, Arsenal over the draw. The four component numbers read 0.89, 1.17, 1.15, 0.51. Most likely single result is Arsenal on 69.6%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 10.3% / 19.6% / 70.1%. It landed. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The higher rating belongs to the away side.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Arsenal beat Sunderland 2-0 on 12 September 2026. Reinildo (28'), Mikel Arteta (39'), Daniel Ballard (66') and Granit Xhaka (69') were booked. Bruno Guimarães scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Arsenal 300 points stronger than Sunderland. On current ratings the model favours Arsenal at 69.6% in this pairing, and Arsenal won this one.