On record: 2 meetings from 2026, 4-2 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-PL. History aside, the live ratings of 1544 and 1519 drive a 50.3% / 24.8% / 24.9% distribution.
Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 44 and 43 rated matches respectively. The four component numbers read 1.09, 1.16, 0.99, 0.86. A decisive result carries 75.2% against 24.8% for the draw. It ended 1-2. Goal expectation splits 1.39 to 1.55. Aston Villa sits 25.4 points above the next most likely result. Most and least likely outcomes are 25.5 points apart. The two ratings differ by 25 points. The higher rating expects 62.7% of the points, the lower 37.3%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 46.7% / 25.7% / 27.7%. The match did not follow it. Rounded, that is 1-1. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.4% leads, but only just. Most likely single result is Aston Villa on 50.3%. One half each — Aston Villa in front on 1.09, Nottingham behind on 0.86.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Nottingham edged past Aston Villa 2-1 on 12 September 2026. Liam Delap opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Nottingham, set up by Murillo, to make it 1-0. Alysson levelled it 74 minutes into the game for Aston Villa, set up by John McGinn, to make it 1-1. Nottingham regained the lead through Igor Jesus late on, in the 88th minute, set up by Morgan Gibbs-White, to make it 2-1. 7 players were booked, among them Dan Ndoye (43'), Nicolas Jackson (45'), Murillo (45'), Xaver Schlager (56'), Liam Delap (75') and James McAtee (80'). Alysson and Igor Jesus scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Aston Villa slightly the stronger side, by 25 rating points over Nottingham, even though it was Nottingham who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Nottingham only a 24.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Nottingham won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.