Rated 1437 and 1583, these two produce a 26.0% / 25.2% / 48.8% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Ipswich Town leads 1.20-0.82 forward and 0.99-1.27 back.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -63 and +83. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Point estimate: 1-2. Someone wins 74.8% of the time by this model. With 43 and 51 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Final score: 2-3. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 19.8% / 23.2% / 57.0%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.8%. 146 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Between best and worst outcome there is 23.6 points of daylight. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Higher rating: the away side. In absolute terms: Crystal Palace 0.82/1.27, Ipswich Town 1.20/0.99 on attack and defence. The leading outcome clears the second by 22.8 points. By expected share of the points: 38.5% and 61.5%. Ipswich Town carries the largest share, 48.8%. Goal expectation splits 1.21 to 2.07.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.