On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 1-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1553 against 1561 — a 45.1% / 26.0% / 28.9% split.
Reduced to one result that is 1-1. In absolute terms: Newcastle 1.22/1.25, Bournemouth 1.04/0.96 on attack and defence. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 38.9% / 27.4% / 33.8%. The match did not follow it. Played and finished 2-2. Higher rating: the away side. Most likely single result is Newcastle on 45.1%. Expected goals 1.73-1.75. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Someone wins 74.0% of the time by this model. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 55 and 43 rated matches respectively. Elo expected shares: 58.1% and 41.9%. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.1 points apart. First to second is a 16.2-point step, Newcastle over Bournemouth. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +53 and +61. The rating gap itself is 8 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. Honours split: 1.22 forward for Newcastle, 0.96 back for Bournemouth. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.3% — not a strong call.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.