A draw is doing more work in this distribution than usual: 26.7%, with the two wins on 41.9% and 31.4%.
Elo expected shares: 55.3% and 44.7%. Ipswich Town has the better scoring rate (1.20) and Liverpool the better defensive one (0.89). The rating gap itself is 28 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The three results cover 15.2 points. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 58.6% / 22.8% / 18.6%. That one did not come off. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.5%. Raw profiles are 1.20 and 0.99 against 1.19 and 0.89. Top of the distribution: Ipswich Town, 41.9%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +83 and +111. Played and finished 0-2. Ipswich Town sits 10.5 points above the next most likely result. Win-or-lose totals 73.3%; the draw takes the rest. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 51 and 56 rated matches respectively. Higher rating: the away side. Its point estimate is 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.59 and 1.59. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Liverpool beat Ipswich Town 2-0 on 4 September 2026. Alexander Isak opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Liverpool, set up by Cody Gakpo, to make it 1-0. Alexander Isak added to the tally inside the first 9 minutes for Liverpool, set up by Cody Gakpo, to make it 2-0. Alexis Mac Allister (10'), Julio Enciso (41'), Jeremy Jacquet (52') and Milos Kerkez (57') were booked. Liverpool are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26, Premier League 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.