Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-PL. Against that, current ratings read 1621 and 1556, a 65-point margin, and the model splits the tie 56.2% / 23.4% / 20.4%.
Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.6%. A 65-point spread sits between the two figures. The home side is rated higher. The four component numbers read 1.35, 0.83, 0.98, 0.82. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 48.3% / 25.3% / 26.4%. The match did not follow it. The higher rating expects 67.9% of the points, the lower 32.1%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model gives 76.6% to someone winning. Between best and worst outcome there is 35.8 points of daylight. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 43 and 43 rated matches respectively. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +121 and +56. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. First to second is a 32.8-point step, Brighton Hove over the draw. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.35 to 0.98 says Brighton Hove, 0.82 to 0.83 says Leeds United.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.