Man City enters 156 points clear of Coventry City on rating, which the model reads as 68.0% / 20.3% / 11.7%.
The higher rating belongs to the home side. Both components point the same way, toward Man City: 1.51 to 1.16 going forward, 0.75 to 0.87 going back. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Win-or-lose totals 79.7%; the draw takes the rest. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +256 and +100. Man City carries the largest share, 68.0%. Both figures rest on decent samples, 54 and 51 matches. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The tie closed out 1-0. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 48.5% / 25.2% / 26.2%. That call matched the result. Its rounded call is 1-1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 78.1% to 21.9%. Raw profiles are 1.51 and 0.75 against 1.16 and 0.87. Rating separation comes to 156 points. The three results cover 56.3 points. Expected goals sit at 1.95 against 1.18. Man City leads the distribution by 47.7 points over the draw. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.1%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Man City edged past Coventry City 1-0 on 5 September 2026. On current ratings the model favours Man City at 68% in this pairing, and Man City won this one. Man City's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in Premier League 2025/26, Premier League 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.