Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 2-0-0 in Nottingham's favour on wins, 6-0 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-0 in comp-fd-PL. Against that, current ratings read 1519 and 1423, a 96-point margin, and the model splits the tie 60.4% / 22.4% / 17.2%.
The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Nottingham holds a 38.0-point edge on the next outcome. The four component numbers read 0.99, 0.86, 0.80, 1.17. The tie closed out 0-0. Versus the 1500 seed: +19 and -77. The rating gap itself is 96 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Nottingham holds both halves of the profile — 0.99 against 0.80 for scoring, 0.86 against 1.17 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.72 and 0.93. No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 12.2%. Most and least likely outcomes are 43.2 points apart. Top of the distribution: Nottingham, 60.4%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. A decisive result carries 77.6% against 22.4% for the draw. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 43 and 53 rated matches respectively.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.