On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 0-0 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-ELC. Against that, current ratings read 1600 and 1581, a 19-point margin, and the model splits the tie 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.6%.
The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The distribution runs from 49.3% down to 25.1%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The higher rating expects 61.9% of the points, the lower 38.1%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 63.7% / 21.5% / 14.8%. The result went the other way. Coventry City leads the distribution by 23.7 points over Hull City. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.37 and 1.13. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +100 and +81. 49.3% goes to Coventry City, the model's lean. 19 points of rating separation. Result on the day: 0-1. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.7% — not a strong call. Scorelines above 8%: 5. A decisive result carries 74.9% against 25.1% for the draw. One edge each: scoring to Coventry City (1.16 v 0.96), conceding to Hull City (0.80 v 0.87). Raw profiles are 1.16 and 0.87 against 0.96 and 0.80.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Hull City edged past Coventry City 1-0 on 29 August 2026. Liam Millar opened the scoring late on, in the 82nd minute for Hull City, set up by Mohamed Belloumi, to make it 1-0. Lewie Coyle (10'), Regan Slater (51'), Elliot Stroud (54'), Oliver McBurnie (68') and Aurele Amenda (84') were booked. Liam Millar scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Hull City only a 25.6% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Hull City won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.