2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-2. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1561 against 1520 — a 52.6% / 24.3% / 23.1% split.
The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.3% leads, but only just. Someone wins 75.7% of the time by this model. The home side is rated higher. Expected shares 64.8% against 35.2% on Elo. Neither side holds both halves — Bournemouth scores at 1.04, Everton concedes at 0.93. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 64.3% / 21.3% / 14.3%. The result went the other way. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 43 matches respectively sit behind them. 52.6% goes to Bournemouth, the model's lean. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The distribution runs from 52.6% down to 23.1%. Result on the day: 1-1. Goal expectation splits 1.42 to 1.23. Distance between the ratings: 41 points, moderate on this scale. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Raw profiles are 1.04 and 0.96 against 0.95 and 0.93. The leading outcome clears the second by 28.3 points.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Bournemouth and Everton drew 1-1 on 29 August 2026. Alex Scott opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Bournemouth, set up by Evanilson, to make it 1-0. James Tarkowski levelled it in the 91st minute for Everton to make it 1-1. Alex Scott (21'), Adam Smith (23'), Marcus Tavernier (53'), James Garner (59') and Carlos Alcaraz (90') were booked. Everton are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.