Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2025, 1-4 in comp-fd-PL. History aside, the live ratings of 1544 and 1797 drive a 14.6% / 21.4% / 63.9% distribution.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.09/1.16 and 1.15/0.51. Expected goals come out at 0.83 to 1.80. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Someone wins 78.5% of the time by this model. By expected share of the points: 25.3% and 74.7%. The three results cover 49.3 points. The tie closed out 0-1. 63.9% goes to Arsenal, the model's lean. Arsenal leads the distribution by 42.5 points over the draw. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. The ratings draw on 44 and 59 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Both components point the same way, toward Arsenal: 1.15 to 1.09 going forward, 0.51 to 1.16 going back. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +44 and +297. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-1 on 13.0%. 253 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Logged in advance of kickoff — 14.7% / 21.5% / 63.8%. It landed.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Arsenal edged past Aston Villa 1-0 on 31 August 2026. Bukayo Saka opened the scoring 59 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Riccardo Calafiori, to make it 1-0. Christos Tzolis (29'), Alysson (81'), John McGinn (81') and Ian Maatsen (90') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Arsenal at 63.9% in this pairing, and Arsenal won this one.