Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-0-2 from Chelsea's side on wins, 1-6 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1478 against 1621 — a 26.3% / 25.3% / 48.4% split.
Between best and worst outcome there is 23.1 points of daylight. The match finished 4-3. 48.4% goes to Brighton Hove, the model's lean. By expected share of the points: 39.0% and 61.0%. Before kickoff our model had this at 36.2% / 28.0% / 35.8%. That call matched the result. Someone wins 74.7% of the time by this model. Brighton Hove leads the distribution by 22.1 points over Chelsea. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -22 and +121. Raw profiles are 1.09 and 1.43 against 1.35 and 0.83. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Brighton Hove is ahead on each half — 1.35 to 1.09 in attack, 0.83 to 1.43 in defence. 143 points of rating separation. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 8.8%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. xG: 1.34 to 2.61. The ratings draw on 53 and 43 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Chelsea edged past Brighton Hove 4-3 on 30 August 2026. Our current Elo ratings make Brighton Hove clearly the stronger side, by 143 rating points over Chelsea, even though it was Chelsea who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Chelsea only a 26.3% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. On current ratings the model puts Chelsea at around 1.34 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Chelsea won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.