2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 0-6. The latest was 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-PL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1437 and 1756 — 319 points — for a 9.3% / 19.1% / 71.6% split.
319 points of rating separation. Both components point the same way, toward Man City: 1.51 to 0.82 going forward, 0.75 to 1.27 going back. 0-2 leads the scorelines at 10.0% — not a strong call. Top of the distribution: Man City, 71.6%. The underlying goal expectation is 0.92 for Crystal Palace, 2.59 for Man City. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Both figures rest on decent samples, 43 and 54 matches. The leading outcome clears the second by 52.5 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -63 and +256. Before kickoff our model had this at 18.5% / 22.8% / 58.7%. That call matched the result. The model gives 80.9% to someone winning. The higher rating expects 81.2% of the points, the lower 18.8%. The match finished 1-4. Spread across the three results is 62.3 points.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Man City comfortably beat Crystal Palace 4-1 on 28 August 2026. Erling Haaland opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Man City, set up by Antoine Semenyo, to make it 1-0. Rayan Cherki added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Man City, set up by Phil Foden, to make it 2-0. Gianluigi Donnarumma (an own goal) pulled one back 56 minutes into the game for Crystal Palace to make it 1-2. Rayan Cherki added to the tally 59 minutes into the game for Man City, set up by Joško Gvardiol, to make it 3-1. Erling Haaland added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Man City, set up by Phil Foden, to make it 4-1. Rayan Cherki (33'), Elliot Anderson (55') and Anan Khalaili (68') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Man City 319 points stronger than Crystal Palace. On current ratings the model favours Man City at 71.6% in this pairing, and Man City won this one. Man City's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in Premier League 2025/26, Premier League 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.