1638 plays 1583; the model splits it 54.8% / 23.8% / 21.4%. Man United holds both halves of the profile — 1.31 against 1.20 for scoring, 0.96 against 0.99 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Outcomes span 33.4 points. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Final score: 5-2. On expected goals the model has it 1.92 against 1.56. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 51 matches respectively sit behind them. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.2%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +138 and +83. Attack/defence pairs: 1.31/0.96 and 1.20/0.99. Top of the distribution: Man United, 54.8%. Its point estimate is 1-1. A 31.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Rating separation comes to 55 points. The higher-rated side expects 66.6% of the points; the other side 33.4%. The home side is rated higher. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 45.9% / 25.8% / 28.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 76.2% against 23.8% for the draw.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Man United comfortably beat Ipswich Town 5-2 on 30 August 2026. Saša Lukić (33'), Abdul Issahaku (37') and Jacob Greaves (60') were booked. On current ratings the model puts Man United at around 1.92 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here.