On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 1-3 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1611 against 1519 — a 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.6% split.
Rating separation comes to 92 points. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. 60.0% goes to Liverpool, the model's lean. With 56 and 43 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The edge is split: Liverpool scores at the higher rate (1.19 to 0.99), Nottingham concedes at the lower (0.86 to 0.89). No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.0%. Higher rating: the home side. Liverpool sits 37.5 points above the next most likely result. Outcomes span 42.4 points. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Elo expected shares: 71.2% and 28.8%. A decisive result carries 77.6% against 22.5% for the draw. The match finished 2-2. Goal expectation splits 1.52 to 1.19. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +111 and +19. Attack/defence pairs: 1.19/0.89 and 0.99/0.86. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 49.8% / 25.0% / 25.3%. The match did not follow it.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Liverpool and Nottingham drew 2-2 on 29 August 2026. Igor Jesus (44') was booked. Liverpool are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26, Premier League 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.