2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-3. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PL. Today those sides rate 1471 and 1478, 7 apart, which resolves to 45.4% / 25.9% / 28.7%.
One edge each: scoring to Chelsea (1.09 v 0.81), conceding to Fulham (0.97 v 1.43). Win-or-lose totals 74.1%; the draw takes the rest. Top of the distribution: Fulham, 45.4%. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.6%. Fulham holds a 16.7-point edge on the next outcome. xG: 1.72 to 1.42. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 54.4% / 23.9% / 21.7%. That one did not come off. Ratings sit 7 apart. Between best and worst outcome there is 19.5 points of daylight. As a single number the model says 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -29 and -22. By expected share of the points: 58.3% and 41.7%. The ratings draw on 43 and 53 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The match finished 2-3. Attack/defence pairs: 0.81/0.97 and 1.09/1.43. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Chelsea edged past Fulham 3-2 on 24 August 2026. João Pedro opened the scoring inside the first minute for Chelsea, set up by Cole Palmer, to make it 1-0. Joshua King levelled it in the 23rd minute for Fulham, set up by Timothy Castagne, to make it 1-1. Chelsea regained the lead through Morgan Rogers in the 41st minute, set up by Maxence Lacroix, to make it 2-1. Cole Palmer added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Chelsea, set up by João Pedro, to make it 3-1. Gonzalo García pulled one back 54 minutes into the game for Fulham to make it 2-3. Levi Colwill (5'), Romeo Lavia (12'), Reece James (75') and Calvin Bassey (76') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Chelsea only a 28.7% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.