2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 3-7. The latest was 2026, 1-4 in comp-fd-PL. Currently 1553 against 1611 — a 37.0% / 27.8% / 35.2% split.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.7%. The four component numbers read 1.22, 1.25, 1.19, 0.89. One half each — Newcastle in front on 1.22, Liverpool behind on 0.89. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Rating separation comes to 58 points. Versus the 1500 seed: +53 and +111. Final score: 2-2. A decisive result carries 72.2% against 27.8% for the draw. Logged in advance of kickoff — 44.0% / 26.3% / 29.8%. The match did not follow it. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Expected goals 1.61-2.01. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 55 and 56 rated matches respectively. The higher rating expects 49.0% of the points, the lower 51.0%. The three outcomes sit within 9.2 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-2. The leading two outcomes sit 1.8 points apart, which is not a real preference. 37.0% goes to Newcastle, the model's lean.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Newcastle and Liverpool drew 2-2 on 23 August 2026. Anthony Elanga opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Newcastle, set up by William Osula, to make it 1-0. Cody Gakpo levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Liverpool, set up by Ryan Gravenberch, to make it 1-1. Newcastle regained the lead through Joe Willock 57 minutes into the game, set up by Yoane Wissa, to make it 2-1. Dominik Szoboszlai levelled it from the penalty spot in the 99th minute for Liverpool to make it 2-2. 7 players were booked, among them Yoane Wissa (25'), Milos Kerkez (30'), Lewis Miley (34'), Jacob Ramsey (65'), Jacob Murphy (79') and Lukáš Horníček (90'). Joe Willock scored after coming off the bench. Liverpool are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form in Premier League 2025/26, Premier League 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.