Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-PL. Against that, current ratings read 1621 and 1544, a 77-point margin, and the model splits the tie 57.8% / 23.1% / 19.2%.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.35/0.83 and 1.09/1.16. Played and finished 4-0. Before kickoff our model had this at 40.9% / 26.9% / 32.1%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 44 matches respectively sit behind them. The leading outcome clears the second by 34.7 points. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. The model gives 77.0% to someone winning. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +121 and +44. Expected goals come out at 2.33 to 1.23. Brighton Hove carries the largest share, 57.8%. Brighton Hove is ahead on each half — 1.35 to 1.09 in attack, 0.83 to 1.16 in defence. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 9.5%. The higher rating expects 69.4% of the points, the lower 30.6%. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. The home side is rated higher. Outcomes span 38.6 points.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Brighton Hove overwhelmed Aston Villa 4-0 on 23 August 2026. Victor Nilsson-Lindelöf (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Brighton Hove to make it 1-0. Maxim De Cuyper added to the tally in the 18th minute for Brighton Hove, set up by Georginio Rutter, to make it 2-0. Jack Hinshelwood added to the tally in the 30th minute for Brighton Hove, set up by Diego Gómez, to make it 3-0. Jack Hinshelwood added to the tally in the 31st minute for Brighton Hove, set up by Yasin Ayari, to make it 4-0. João Gomes (9'), Pascal Groß (9'), Yasin Ayari (11') and John McGinn (33') were booked. All the scoring was done by half time. On current ratings the model favours Brighton Hove at 57.8% in this pairing, and Brighton Hove won this one. Brighton Hove won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.