Nothing in the ratings separates these two: 1581 against 1638, 57 points apart, and no outcome clears 37.2%.
Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. The model's preferred outcome is Hull City at 37.2%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 30.1% / 26.3% / 43.6%. That one did not come off. The ratings draw on 54 and 43 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. 57 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. In absolute terms: Hull City 0.96/0.80, Man United 1.31/0.96 on attack and defence. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.0%. One half each — Man United in front on 1.31, Hull City behind on 0.80. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Versus the 1500 seed: +81 and +138. Result on the day: 2-0. xG: 1.37 to 1.41. A 9.5-point range covers every outcome here. Win-or-lose totals 72.2%; the draw takes the rest. A 2.2-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Expected shares 51.2% against 48.8% on Elo.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Hull City beat Man United 2-0 on 22 August 2026. Our current Elo ratings make Man United slightly the stronger side, by 57 rating points over Hull City, even though it was Hull City who won this one.