197 points is a wide separation: Arsenal rates 1797, Coventry City 1600. That resolves to 72.5% / 18.8% / 8.7%.
The home side is rated higher. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.16 to 1.15 says Coventry City, 0.51 to 0.87 says Arsenal. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Arsenal carries the largest share, 72.5%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 63.6% / 21.5% / 14.9%. It landed. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +297 and +100. Distance between the ratings: 197 points, wide on this scale. Expected shares 81.9% against 18.1% on Elo. Final score: 3-0. Spread across the three results is 63.8 points. Scorelines above 8%: 5. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 15.1%, clear of 1-1 on 12.1%. The model gives 81.2% to someone winning. The four component numbers read 1.15, 0.51, 1.16, 0.87. Behind them are 59 and 51 rated matches. The leading outcome clears the second by 53.7 points. As a single number the model says 1-0. Expected goals come out at 1.49 to 0.80.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Arsenal comfortably beat Coventry City 3-0 on 21 August 2026. Kai Havertz opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for Arsenal, set up by Riccardo Calafiori, to make it 1-0. Bukayo Saka added to the tally in the 23rd minute for Arsenal to make it 2-0. Martin Ødegaard added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Arsenal, set up by Ben White, to make it 3-0. Caleb Yirenkyi (27') and Gabriel Magalhães (34') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Arsenal at 72.5% in this pairing, and Arsenal won this one.