On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 4-6 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-3 in comp-fd-FL1. Today those sides rate 1402 and 1517, 115 apart, which resolves to 29.8% / 26.3% / 43.9%.
The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 13.0% leads, but only just. The distribution runs from 43.9% down to 26.3%. Lorient is ahead on each half — 1.04 to 0.66 in attack, 0.94 to 1.14 in defence. A decisive result carries 73.7% against 26.3% for the draw. Ratings sit 115 apart. Expected goals sit at 0.92 against 1.60. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The gap between first and second outcome is 14.1 points, Lorient ahead of Nice. With 38 and 37 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The higher-rated side expects 57.1% of the points; the other side 42.9%. Versus the 1500 seed: -98 and +17. Most likely single result is Lorient on 43.9%. The four component numbers read 0.66, 1.14, 1.04, 0.94. As a single number the model says 0-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.