2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 4-3. The latest was 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-FL1. Today those sides rate 1488 and 1528, 40 apart, which resolves to 40.0% / 27.1% / 32.9%.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 53.6% to 46.4%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -12 and +28. Most likely single result is Marseille on 40.0%. Outcomes span 12.9 points. Someone wins 72.9% of the time by this model. The four component numbers read 1.07, 1.14, 1.18, 1.19. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The two ratings differ by 40 points. Its rounded call is 1-1. Behind them are 47 and 38 rated matches. The match finished 4-0. The edge is split: Strasbourg scores at the higher rate (1.18 to 1.07), Marseille concedes at the lower (1.14 to 1.19). Logged in advance of kickoff — 40.9% / 26.9% / 32.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The xG line reads 1.89 to 1.80. The gap between first and second outcome is 7.1 points, Marseille ahead of Strasbourg. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Marseille overwhelmed Strasbourg 4-0 on 21 August 2026. Amine Gouiri opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Marseille, set up by Angel Gomes, to make it 1-0. Amine Gouiri added to the tally from the penalty spot 68 minutes into the game for Marseille to make it 2-0. Keyliane Abdallah added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Marseille to make it 3-0. Pierre Emile Højbjerg added to the tally in the 96th minute for Marseille to make it 4-0. Samir El Mourabet (59') was sent off. Samuel Amo-Ameyaw (47'), Sekou Mara (61') and Nayef Aguerd (79') were booked. Keyliane Abdallah scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Strasbourg slightly the stronger side, by 40 rating points over Marseille, even though it was Marseille who won this one. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model puts Marseille at around 1.89 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Marseille's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats.