On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 3-6 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 3-1 in comp-fd-FL1. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1585 and 1751 — 166 points — for a 23.5% / 24.4% / 52.0% split.
Higher rating: the away side. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. Reduced to one result that is 1-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +85 and +251. Top of the distribution: PSG, 52.0%. First to second is a 27.6-point step, PSG over the draw. 1-2 leads the scorelines at 8.8% — not a strong call. The three results cover 28.5 points. Ratings sit 166 apart. The higher rating expects 64.1% of the points, the lower 35.9%. Neither figure is thin: 38 and 56 matches respectively sit behind them. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither component contradicts the other: PSG leads 1.49-1.22 forward and 0.84-1.16 back. The forecast we stored before the match was 72.3% / 18.9% / 8.8%. That one did not come off. The tie closed out 2-2. Attack/defence pairs: 1.22/1.16 and 1.49/0.84. The xG line reads 1.53 to 2.32.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.