On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 3-1 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-FL1. Currently 1601 against 1460 — a 66.3% / 20.8% / 13.0% split.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 39 and 39 matches. The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 9.4% leads, but only just. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +101 and -40. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. A decisive result carries 79.3% against 20.8% for the draw. The three results cover 53.3 points. There is no trade-off to weigh: RC Lens scores at the higher rate (1.44 to 0.96) and concedes at the lower (0.99 to 1.10). 141 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Higher rating: the home side. The gap between first and second outcome is 45.5 points, RC Lens ahead of the draw. The model's preferred outcome is RC Lens at 66.3%. The four component numbers read 1.44, 0.99, 0.96, 1.10. Logged in advance of kickoff — 65.7% / 20.9% / 13.4%. It landed. Final score: 5-2. Goal expectation splits 2.35 to 1.29.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
RC Lens comfortably beat Auxerre 5-2 on 22 August 2026. Florian Thauvin opened the scoring from the penalty spot inside the first 12 minutes for RC Lens to make it 1-0. Franjo Ivanovic added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for RC Lens, set up by Abdallah Sima, to make it 2-0. Saud Abdulhamid added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for RC Lens, set up by Florian Thauvin, to make it 3-0. Daniel Namaso got one back from the penalty spot 61 minutes into the game for Auxerre to make it 1-3. Pierre Ganiou added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for RC Lens, set up by Michał Skóraś, to make it 4-1. Lamine Sy got one back 69 minutes into the game for Auxerre, set up by Rayan Mandengue, to make it 2-4. Florian Thauvin added to the tally from the penalty spot late on, in the 88th minute for RC Lens to make it 5-2. Christ Makosso (35') was sent off. Maik Nawrocki (84') and Kevin Danois (86') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have RC Lens 141 points stronger than Auxerre. On current ratings the model favours RC Lens at 66.3% in this pairing, and RC Lens won this one. On current ratings the model puts RC Lens at around 2.35 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here.