The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Brest, 2 to Toulouse, 0 drawn, 0-4 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-FL1. The present numbers are 1427 against 1478, and the model turns that into 38.2% / 27.5% / 34.3%.
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.49 and 1.63. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.7%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -73 and -22. There is no trade-off to weigh: Toulouse scores at the higher rate (1.01 to 0.90) and concedes at the lower (1.12 to 1.19). Rounded, that is 1-1. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Expected shares 52.0% against 48.0% on Elo. 51 points of rating separation. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Someone wins 72.5% of the time by this model. Both figures rest on decent samples, 38 and 39 matches. A 10.7-point range covers every outcome here. The model's preferred outcome is Brest at 38.2%. The top two outcomes are within 3.9 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Brest and Toulouse drew 2-2 on 29 August 2026. Jacen Russell-Rowe opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Toulouse, set up by Yann Gboho, to make it 1-0. Kamory Doumbia levelled it in the 18th minute for Brest, set up by Mamady Diambou, to make it 1-1. Toulouse regained the lead through Christ Tapé 62 minutes into the game, set up by Cristian Cásseres Jr., to make it 2-1. Ludovic Ajorque levelled it in the 95th minute for Brest, set up by Joseph Boende, to make it 2-2. Bradley Locko (31'), Pathé Mboup (44'), Cristian Cásseres Jr. (45'), Niklas Schmidt (89') and Rasmus Nicolaisen (90') were booked.