2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 3-3. The latest was 2026, 3-1 in comp-fd-FL1. Currently 1460 against 1403 — a 55.0% / 23.7% / 21.3% split.
Auxerre's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 66.9%. Someone wins 76.3% of the time by this model. A 33.7-point range top to bottom. The tie closed out 1-3. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -40 and -97. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The four component numbers read 0.96, 1.10, 0.66, 1.08. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 12.4%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.54 and 0.98. 55.0% goes to Auxerre, the model's lean. Auxerre sits 31.3 points above the next most likely result. A 57-point spread sits between the two figures. The home side is rated higher. One edge each: scoring to Auxerre (0.96 v 0.66), conceding to Angers SCO (1.08 v 1.10). Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The ratings draw on 39 and 38 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 61.9% / 22.0% / 16.1%. The match did not follow it.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Angers SCO beat Auxerre 3-1 on 29 August 2026. Branco van den Boomen (27') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Auxerre slightly the stronger side, by 57 rating points over Angers SCO, even though it was Angers SCO who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Angers SCO only a 21.3% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts Angers SCO at around 0.98 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here.