2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-1. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-FL1. Currently 1584 against 1402 — a 70.8% / 19.4% / 9.8% split.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 80.6% to 19.4%. Paris FC is ahead on each half — 1.18 to 0.66 in attack, 0.87 to 1.14 in defence. Scorelines above 8%: 5. A 51.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. xG: 1.99 to 0.77. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-0 at 12.6%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +84 and -98. The distribution runs from 70.8% down to 9.8%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. In absolute terms: Paris FC 1.18/0.87, Nice 0.66/1.14 on attack and defence. Ratings sit 182 apart. Both figures rest on decent samples, 38 and 38 matches. The higher rating belongs to the home side. It ended 3-0. Win-or-lose totals 80.6%; the draw takes the rest. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Logged in advance of kickoff — 66.3% / 20.8% / 13.0%. That call matched the result. Most likely single result is Paris FC on 70.8%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Paris FC comfortably beat Nice 3-0 on 30 August 2026. Lassine Sinayoko opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 21st minute for Paris FC to make it 1-0. Samir Chergui added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Paris FC, set up by Ilan Kebbal, to make it 2-0. Vincent Marchetti added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Paris FC, set up by Patrick Zabi, to make it 3-0. Youssouf Ndayishimiye (18') was booked. Vincent Marchetti scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Paris FC 182 points stronger than Nice. On current ratings the model favours Paris FC at 70.8% in this pairing, and Paris FC won this one. Paris FC are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form.