2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-0. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-FL1. The live ratings are 1615 and 1407, giving 73.5% / 18.5% / 8.0%.
Most likely single result is Olympique Lyon on 73.5%. It ended 1-1. Versus the 1500 seed: +115 and -93. A 208-point spread sits between the two figures. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. The leading outcome clears the second by 55.0 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 82.8% to 17.2%. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 13.1% — not a strong call. Expected goals come out at 1.80 to 0.82. Both components point the same way, toward Olympique Lyon: 1.24 to 0.74 going forward, 0.82 to 0.97 going back. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Spread across the three results is 65.5 points. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 62.4% / 21.8% / 15.7%. The result went the other way. Win-or-lose totals 81.5%; the draw takes the rest. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Neither figure is thin: 39 and 39 matches respectively sit behind them.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.