2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-2. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-FL1. The present numbers are 1528 against 1601, and the model turns that into 34.9% / 27.7% / 37.4%.
The match finished 2-1. The model's preferred outcome is RC Lens at 37.4%. A decisive result carries 72.3% against 27.7% for the draw. Both components point the same way, toward RC Lens: 1.44 to 1.18 going forward, 0.99 to 1.19 going back. Neither figure is thin: 38 and 39 matches respectively sit behind them. Logged in advance of kickoff — 33.5% / 27.3% / 39.2%. The result went the other way. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. A 9.7-point range covers every outcome here. By expected share of the points: 48.8% and 51.2%. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Raw profiles are 1.18 and 1.19 against 1.44 and 0.99. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +28 and +101. Expected goals sit at 1.73 against 2.30. Only 2.5 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Strasbourg edged past RC Lens 2-1 on 29 August 2026. Florian Thauvin opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 38th minute for RC Lens to make it 1-0. Gessime Yassine levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Strasbourg, set up by Sebastian Nanasi, to make it 1-1. Gessime Yassine put Strasbourg in front late on, in the 85th minute, set up by Sebastian Nanasi, to make it 2-1. Jeyland Mitchell (36'), Franjo Ivanovic (69'), Ruben Aguilar (80') and Gessime Yassine (84') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make RC Lens slightly the stronger side, by 73 rating points over Strasbourg, even though it was Strasbourg who won this one. Strasbourg won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.