2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-4. The latest was 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-FL1. History aside, the live ratings of 1574 and 1751 drive a 22.4% / 24.1% / 53.6% distribution.
Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 11.3%. A 31.2-point range top to bottom. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals 1.30-1.63. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Raw profiles are 1.04 and 0.81 against 1.49 and 0.84. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. 76.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 21.0% / 23.6% / 55.4%. The match did not follow it. The tie closed out 2-2. Behind them are 39 and 56 rated matches. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The gap between first and second outcome is 29.5 points, PSG ahead of the draw. A 177-point difference on the rating scale. One edge each: scoring to PSG (1.49 v 1.04), conceding to Lille (0.81 v 0.84). Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +74 and +251. The model's preferred outcome is PSG at 53.6%. By expected share of the points: 34.4% and 65.6%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Lille and PSG drew 2-2 on 28 August 2026. Hákon Haraldsson opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Lille, set up by Olivier Giroud, to make it 1-0. Dilane Bakwa added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Lille, set up by Olivier Giroud, to make it 2-0. Vitinha pulled one back in the 91st minute for PSG to make it 1-2. Marquinhos levelled it in the 95th minute for PSG, set up by Vitinha, to make it 2-2. Fabián Ruiz (39'), Benjamin André (52') and Romain Perraud (90') were booked. Dilane Bakwa scored after coming off the bench. 3 goals came after the 80th minute.